Forecasting is not prophecy.

It is calculation under pressure.

“In the midst of winter, I found there was, within me, an invincible summer.”
— Albert Camus

Research in outbreak forecasting is the architecture of defense.

“I just need to know when to act. I refuse to merely be an observer of the world around us.”

“Responsibility is the only antidote to the unknown.”

Signal / Noise / Truth

def filter_noise(data):
    # The average is a lie.
    # The truth lives in
    # the outliers.
    if data > threshold:
      return anomaly

“The struggle itself toward the heights is enough to fill a man's heart.”
— Albert Camus

“One must have the strength to break the bones of the text to get at the marrow.”
— Franz Kafka